The FAST International Early Warning Methodology

In essence, early warning encompasses the following activities: 1) the systematic collection and analysis of information coming from areas of crisis to support the anticipating of an escalation of violent conflict; 2) the development of strategic responses to these crises; and 3) the presentation of policy and implementation options to those in a position to make and implement crucially required policy and program decisions. Successful early warning depends on the collection of sufficient, timely and relevant information; on timely analysis of this information; and on timely formulation of feasible policy options leading to early action. In order to meet these criteria, FAST International used a comprehensive methodology that combined the advantages of both qualitative and quantitative analyses of conflictive and cooperative trends in the societies under observation.

Quantitative Event Data Analysis

The quantitative methodology developed for FAST International is based on event data analysis: All events that are considered to be relevant to conflict development are assigned a certain numeric value according to a distinct conflict scale. These values can then be added up and displayed in a graph ? for specific indicators or combinations of indicators, and for specific periods of time. Use of event data has significant advantages for early warning due to its consistency, transparency, speed and interactivity.

The collection of single cooperative and conflictive event data is done by local staff (through our Local Information Networks). Events are then coded by so-called Country Coordinators, based on a standardized coding scheme, the IDEA (Integrated Data for Event Analysis) coding framework. IDEA identifies the initiator and recipient of an action, the action itself, and the time and scope of the action. Event data is coded based on a method originally developed by Virtual Research Associates (VRA®), a Harvard-based group of academic analysts. In addition to the advantages of event data analysis, automated coding allows for the speedy digestion of a large amount of information in a very short period of time.

By aggregating all relevant events into early warning indicators, and depicting them in various graphs, FAST International generated a realistic account of overall conflict potential or political stability in specific locations. The advantages of event data analysis are as follows:

• A multitude of information is broken down into its component parts and depicted in easy-to-read graphs demonstrating aspects of conflict and cooperation within and between countries/communities.
• Event data counts and respective graphs provide checks and balances against de-sensitization toward violence and/or media hypes.
• Event data analysis allows for speedy tracking of specific violent or cooperative incidences over time and supports qualitative assessments.
• Event data graphs allow for comparisons between countries, communities, regions or even districts.
• Event data analysis, if further developed supports the forecasting of conflict trends.

In the context of this last point, FAST International also conducted research in the field of quantitative forecasting, with a focus on forecasting models, risk maps and actors network analyses that allow accurate predictions of the potential for, or risk of, political crises. The objective was to estimate the potential for conflict in the countries and regions monitored by FAST International. This was done with the assistance of a computational tool that compared event sequence similarity over time. Moreover, the FAST team compared the human coding of event data with machine parsing methods and assessed the quality of different data sources such as FAST, Reuters news feeds and the World Wide Web.

Local Information Networks

In every monitored country FAST International established Local Information Networks (LINs). These LINs were responsible for tracking and reporting relevant information in accordance with a specific set of questions or properties related to the political salience of a conflictive or cooperative event. Each LIN consisted of one Country Coordinator and two to six Field Monitors ? depending on the size and/or diversity of the country. FAST International provided Country Coordinators with training in conflict analysis and event data methodology. The information collected by the LINs fed into an event archive that could be searched for specific indicators and issues, which in turn could be displayed through a variety of conflict and cooperation-related graphs. That information was subsequently analyzed by FAST's international experts and integrated in country risk assessments.

In our opinion, Local Information Networks offer the following advantages:

• They generate country- and area-specific information.
• They provide up-to-date, independent, and constant information.
• They allow for targeted information collection customized to users' needs.
• While operational, they permitted regular contact between international, and FAST International-based and LIN-based analysts.

Qualitative Analysis

As even the most sophisticated quantitative analysis requires interpretation, data analysis was carried out in collaboration with both Bern-based desk officers with relevant regional expertise and internationally renowned country experts.
Qualitative analysis was necessary for maintaining a context-specific understanding of political developments in the countries and regions monitored by FAST International, and for anticipating even minor changes that can be initiated by local, regional, and international actors. Qualitative analysis at FAST International drew on the work of:

• FAST International Desk Officers: Desk officers were responsible for recruiting and supporting the Country Coordinators (who, in turn, assembled their group of field monitors) and the international Country Experts. The desk officers were also responsible for monitoring events and developments in the countries under their responsibility, and for analysis of relevant literature and secondary sources.

• Country Experts: In order to generate synergy between local understanding and outside expertise, FAST International worked closely with international experts. The involvement of international expertise as a crucial supplement to its quantitative analysis enabled FAST International to obtain a more comprehensive and accurate reflection of developments in the region under observation. The international experts constantly monitored events and developments in the area of their responsibility and undertook analysis of relevant literature and secondary sources.

• Fact-finding missions: FAST International Desk Officers visited the region on which they specialized in order to obtain broader first-hand knowledge, assess the situation on the ground, and maintain close contacts with local analysts. These fact-finding missions were of particular importance in countries that were difficult to access by international news media, or which were potentially subject to one-sided coverage by Western news agencies. In addition, visits to FAST International clients' local projects allowed for the design of more appropriate response options.

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